RESUMO
BACKGROUND: Screening and linkage to care (SLTC) for osteoporosis is suboptimal in several settings. In Greece, it is estimated that only up to 8.6% of postmenopausal women are SLTC for osteoporosis, despite having suffered a previous fracture. AIMS: This study aims to estimate the impact of comprehensive screening on future fracture burden amongst post-menopausal women aged 50-74, with one prior osteoporotic fracture, in Greece. METHODS: We developed a cohort stochastic model, based on published epidemiological and clinical data, to assess impact of screening on future fracture burden in two scenarios: a current, assuming an 8.6% background SLTC, and a completely hypothetical, assuming 100% SLTC. RESULTS: Amongst a cohort of 50,000 post-menopausal women aged 50-74, with one prior osteoporotic fracture, applying the hypothetical versus the current scenario would result in a reduction in deaths (-0.6%) and fractures (-4.3%) over 10 years. The hypothetical scenario leads to greater reductions in costs associated with vertebral (-8.1%) and hip (-5.5%) fractures, followed by other non-vertebral (-3.0%) and forearm (-2.5%) fractures. In the hypothetical scenario, treatment initiations and total screenings increased almost tenfold versus the current scenario, at an estimated direct incremental cost of 27.83 per woman per year in the cohort. DISCUSSION: Our study adds to the existing evidence on the impact of screening to prevent fractures amongst post-menopausal women. Despite being based on a stochastic model, our study confirms findings most recently published in the literature. CONCLUSIONS: Our study models the positive public health impact of increasing SLTC levels amongst post-menopausal women with a prior osteoporotic fracture.
